Course information

• Class mechanics
• Syllabus

Schedule

Part 1: Judgment

Week 1: Introduction and Dual Process Models

• Tuesday
  • The judgment of judges
  • Discussion Questions 1
  • In-class survey
• Thursday
  • Dual process models
  • Assignment 1: Dual process models
• Bonus reading
  • Note: Bonus readings are not required for the class. They are provided for those who want more information and additional background
  • The Wikipedia article (especially the section on System 1 and System 2) gives a good overview
  • The first Part of “Thinking Fast and Slow” (Chapters 1-9) gives an in-depth introduction to dual systems theory. If you don’t want to read all of that, Chapter 1 is a good start.

Week 2: The Availability Heuristic

• Tuesday
  • Availability heuristic 1
  • Discussion Questions 2
• Thursday
  • Availability heuristic 2
  • Assignment 2: The Availability Heuristic
• Bonus reading
  • Wikipedia on the Availability Heuristic
  • Chapter 12 and 13 of “Thinking Fast and Slow” gives more examples and additional historical context

Week 3: The Representativeness Heuristic

Note Labor Day on Monday

• Tuesday
  • Representativeness heuristic 1
  • Discussion Questions 3
• Thursday
  • Representativeness heuristic 2
  • Assignment 3: Representativeness
  • Please complete this very short survey for next week
• Bonus reading
  • The Wikipedia article gives a good overview
  • Chapter 14 and 15 of “Thinking Fast and Slow” cover the Linda and Tom W problems

Week 4: Judgments about randomness

• Tuesday
  • Weird properties of random numbers 1: Law of Small Numbers
  • Discussion Questions 4
• Thursday
  • Weird properties of random numbers 2: Regression to the mean
  • Assignment 4: Representativeness and Randomness
• Bonus reading
  • There’s a section on representativeness and randomness in the Wikipedia article on the Representativeness Heuristic
  • Chapter 16 and 17 of “Thinking Fast and Slow”

Week 5: Judgments over time

• Tuesday
  • Anchoring and adjustment
  • Discussion Questions 5
• Thursday
  • Peak-end bias
  • Assignment 5: Anchoring and Peak End

Week 6: Summary of Judgment

• Tuesday
  • Summary of Judgment
  • Assignment 6: Summary of judgment
• Thursday
  • CATCH UP

Part 2: Decision making

Week 7: Expected Value Theory

• Tuesday
  • Expected Value Theory
  • Discussion Questions 7
• Thursday
  • Problems with Expected Value Theory
  • Assignment 7: Expected Value Theory

Week 8: Expected Utility Theory

• Tuesday
  • Expected Utility Theory 1
  • Bonus material: Solving the St Petersburg paradox
  • Discussion Questions 8
• Thursday
  • Expected Utility Theory 2
  • Assignment 8: Expected Utility Theory

Week 9: Problems with Expected Utility Theory

• Tuesday
  • Problems with Expected Utility Theory
  • Assignment 9: Problems with Expected Utility
• Thursday
  • CATCH UP

Week 10: Prospect Theory — Utility

• Tuesday
  • Prospect Theory 1: Utility
  • Discussion Questions 10
• Thursday
  • Prospect Theory 2: Utility 2
  • Assignment 10: Utility in Prospect Theory

Week 11: Prospect Theory — Probability

• Tuesday
  • Prospect Theory 3: Subjective Probability
  • Discussion Questions 11
• Thursday
  • Prospect Theory 4: Subjective Probability 2
  • Assignment 11: Subjective Probability in Prospect Theory

Part 3: Social decision making and games

Week 12: Wisdom of the crowds and conformity

Veteran’s Day week

_Before looking at any the material for this week, please complete this survey

• Tuesday
  • Wisdom of the crowds
  • Discussion Questions 12
• Thursday
  • Conformity
  • Assignment 12: Wisdom of the crowds, conformity

Week 13: Group judgments and simple games

• Tuesday
  • Judgments in groups
  • Discussion Questions 13
  • In-class survey
    • You can’t do this survey before the class because it requires group discussion
• Thursday
  • Simple Games: Dictator, Ultimatum and Trust
  • Assignment 13: Judgment in groups

Week 14: Thanksgiving, no class!

• Tuesday
  • No class
• Thursday
  • No class (Happy Thanksgiving!)

Week 15: More complex games

• Tuesday
  • More complex games: Chicken, prisoner’s dilemma
  • Discussion Questions 15
• Thursday
  • Randomness in games
  • Assignment 15: Games

Week 16: Review

• Tuesday
  • Review Session